The relationship between China and Pakistan cannot be confined to or fully understood through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The CPEC represents just one aspect of their multifaceted and multidimensional partnership. This partnership has lasted for over 75 years and has grown stronger with time. However, with the initiation of the CPEC, the relationship has entered a new era. Unfortunately, Pakistan has struggled to fully realize the potential of the CPEC alongside China’s rapid development, the Chinese market, and numerous investment opportunities. While various factors contribute to this issue, security concerns, the business environment, and a lack of understanding of the Chinese system have significantly impacted the underutilization of CPEC and its opportunities.
However, security has recently emerged as a major issue. Unfortunately, since its inception, CPEC has become the primary target of forces opposed to Pakistan and the Pakistan-China friendship. Opponents are doing everything they can to obstruct the smooth implementation of CPEC rather than undermine it entirely. They are targeting it in a systematic and sophisticated manner. First, they initiated narrative warfare, labeling CPEC as a debt trap, a new East India Company, and claiming it captures Pakistani resources. Second, they unleashed fifth-generation warfare against CPEC.
After their propaganda failed, they shifted to employing aggressive hot tactics. In recent years, opponents have targeted Chinese nationals at various sites in Pakistan, including Dasu and Karachi. They are particularly focused on Chinese nationals because they know that China is extremely sensitive about its citizens.
In this context, security is expected to be a key topic of discussion between President Zardari and the Chinese leadership during his visit. They are likely to discuss strategies for mitigating security threats to CPEC and Chinese nationals.
Since President Xi began his tenure, China’s security vision has been transforming and evolving. He is cognizant that as a rising power, a global economic and trade hub, and the largest investor, China’s security vision needs to be refined and strengthened. For example, BRI has 152 member states, and China has committed to investing in them in some way. Thus, Chinese nationals and economic interests will be spread across these 152 member states of BRI, in addition to bilateral and other engagements. Against this background, China will have to protect its economic and developmental interests and human capital, which is distributed worldwide. If China shows leniency to protect the lives of the Chinese in one country, then it will have to extend this favor to the other 151 member states. This will put hundreds and thousands of Chinese nationals’ lives in danger, and China cannot afford this.
As a consequence of one-child policy, one child represents the entire family. If one Chinese national is targeted or killed, it implies that the whole family has been affected. Therefore, China has become very sensitive regarding this issue and does everything possible to protect the lives of its citizens at any cost.
Thus, he has determined that threats to any Chinese national anywhere in the world must be addressed with full force.
Pakistani agencies did a wonderful job in the past, but now the spectrum of threats has multiplied. Many opponents are targeting CPEC and the China-Pakistan relationship and have joined forces to undermine CPEC. Some of them are major countries with considerable financial and other resources. Furthermore, after the successful execution of the first phase of CPEC, they have intensified their efforts. Additionally, the abrupt withdrawal of the US and allied forces from Afghanistan has further complicated the situation. Unfortunately, many terrorist groups have emerged, and they are closely collaborating with the opponents of CPEC. Hence, it is extremely challenging for Pakistan to confront all its opponents alone.
Therefore, any security framework that Pakistan develops should be created in close collaboration with China. This is not simply a choice; it is crucial. First, pooling resources and strong cooperation will help match opponents’ resources and deter adversaries’ efforts. Second, it will enable Pakistan to counter certain regional forces opposing the CPEC. Third, China will have direct insight into what is happening and who is targeting Chinese nationals. Thus, Pakistan should ignore propaganda and critics who undermine the security collaboration between Pakistan and China. Their criticisms are intentional. They recognize that the joint efforts of China and Pakistan threaten their plans and propaganda campaigns. Therefore, it is highly recommended that Pakistan explores all avenues to enhance collaboration for CPEC security.
Second, fifth-generation warfare is anticipated to escalate in the coming days. Opponents will continue to spread disinformation, but this time, they will employ a new strategy. They will focus on active diplomats, government officials, and experts who seek to strengthen bilateral relationships. A recent example involved a story from a Western media outlet that misquoted a Chinese official. This tactic aims to silence influential voices, particularly those who counter and mitigate propaganda. A Chinese diplomat was targeted this time; a Pakistani diplomat may be next. Furthermore, they will engage and mobilize so-called independent think tanks to fabricate false narratives and disseminate demoralizing content to the public. It will be deployed to create chaos and tarnish the image of CPEC while inciting people to target Chinese nationals and CPEC investments. Therefore, China and Pakistan should specifically focus on the dynamics and challenges of fifth-generation warfare.
In conclusion, by targeting Chinese nationals, opponents want to achieve two goals. First, to create a divide between China and Pakistan. Second, dry investment and economic opportunities for Pakistan, which are direly needed to tackle Pakistan’s financial, social, and economic issues. By targeting Chinese nationals, they instill fear among potential investors, sending the message that if the Chinese are not safe, how can other nationals feel secure? Therefore, Pakistan and China must join hands to devise a comprehensive security framework to secure the CPEC and Chinese nationals.
